Training History
Track how model performance changes across training runs.
Training Runs
24
CV Tip Rate
70%
Test Tip Rate
69%
Latest MAE
16.8
Features
100
Tip Rate Across Training Runs
Model Comparison by Run
| Run | Model | CV Tip Rate | Test Tip Rate | MAE | Features | Changes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
v20261106-0745 11/6/2026 | xgboostActive | 70% | 69% | 16.8 | 100 | +team_form__diff_wavg_margin_5+team_form__diff_avg_score_8+team_strengths__diff_transition_rebound50_avg+advanced_stats__home_f50_ground_ball_gets_avg5+venue__ground_area+player_impact__diff_missing_disposal_share+roster_change__diff_roster_retention+advanced_stats__away_intercept_marks_avg5+player_impact__diff_team_quality_avg_disposals+advanced_stats__diff_stoppage_clearances_avg5+player_rating__home_team_rating_sum+team_form__diff_win_streak+advanced_stats__diff_effective_disposals_avg5+team_strengths__diff_offensive_scoring_efficiency+cohesion__diff_inside_mid_shared_games+weather_impact__away_weather_windy_win_rate_diff+weather_impact__home_weather_windy_win_rate_diff+roster_change__away_departed_avg_disposals+contextual__home_ladder_wins+player_impact__away_team_quality_avg_disposals+roster_change__home_arrived_avg_disposals+team_form__diff_wavg_contested_possessions_5-team_form__diff_rolling_pct_5-team_form__diff_wavg_score_8-player_impact__diff_missing_count-venue__ground_width-team_form__home_upset_index-team_strengths__diff_territory_rebound50_avg-squad_composition__home_inside_mid_avg_clearances-advanced_stats__home_contest_off_wins_avg5-player_impact__home_missing_count-transform__log_abs_diff_form_accel_margin-venue__away_venue_win_pct_recent-advanced_stats__diff_intercept_mark_rate_avg5-advanced_stats__diff_shot_conversion_avg5-weather_impact__home_kick_wind_penalty-player_rating__away_team_rating_sum-venue__diff_venue_familiarity_score-advanced_stats__diff_contest_off_wins_avg5-team_form__diff_upset_index-contextual__home_post_bye-cohesion__diff_coach_tenure_rounds-matchup__style_diff_ruck_strength-matchup__h2h_home_avg_margin |
| lightgbm | 70% | 69% | 20.2 | |||
| xgboost_sub2 | 69% | 72% | 16.9 | |||
| elasticnet | 69% | 69% | 22.3 | |||
| stacking | 69% | 71% | 26.9 | |||
| lightgbm_sub1 | 69% | 71% | 16.5 | |||
| random_forest | 69% | 72% | 16.5 | |||
| xgboost_sub1 | 69% | 72% | 16.9 | |||
| xgboost_cls | 68% | 72% | 19.9 | |||
| ridge | 68% | 69% | 16.6 | |||
v20261105-0121 11/5/2026 | stackingActive | 70% | 71% | 26.4 | 100 | |
| xgboost | 70% | 70% | 16.5 | |||
| xgboost_sub2 | 70% | 73% | 25.7 | |||
| xgboost_cls | 70% | 68% | 28.1 | |||
| lightgbm_sub1 | 69% | 68% | 16.2 | |||
| xgboost_sub1 | 69% | 67% | 16.1 | |||
| random_forest | 69% | 70% | 16.6 | |||
| lightgbm | 69% | 69% | 16.9 | |||
| elasticnet | 69% | 70% | 16.7 | |||
| ridge | 68% | 68% | 16.7 | |||
v20261104-0243 11/4/2026 | xgboost_sub2Active | 70% | 69% | 26.6 | 100 | |
| xgboost | 70% | 67% | 19.8 | |||
| lightgbm_sub1 | 70% | 70% | 22.1 | |||
| lightgbm | 70% | 68% | 19.9 | |||
| xgboost_cls | 69% | 71% | 19.8 | |||
| random_forest | 69% | 70% | 16.5 | |||
| xgboost_sub1 | 69% | 70% | 22.4 | |||
| elasticnet | 69% | 71% | 20.5 | |||
| stacking | 69% | 70% | 26.7 | |||
| ridge | 68% | 67% | 16.7 | |||
v20261103-1152 11/3/2026 | xgboost_sub1Active | 70% | 69% | 25.9 | 100 | +team_form__diff_avg_score_5+team_form__diff_rolling_pct_5+venue__ground_width+team_form__home_upset_index+team_strengths__diff_territory_rebound50_avg+squad_composition__home_inside_mid_avg_clearances+advanced_stats__home_contest_off_wins_avg5+coaching__home_coach_win_rate_recent+player_impact__home_missing_count+transform__log_abs_diff_form_accel_margin+venue__away_venue_win_pct_recent+coaching__away_coach_win_rate_recent+team_form__home_win_streak+advanced_stats__diff_tackles_inside_fifty_avg5+player_rating__away_team_rating_sum+advanced_stats__diff_contest_off_wins_avg5+player_impact__home_team_quality_avg_disposals+team_form__diff_upset_index+contextual__home_post_bye+cohesion__diff_coach_tenure_rounds+matchup__style_diff_ruck_strength+matchup__h2h_home_avg_margin-team_form__diff_wavg_margin_5-team_strengths__diff_transition_rebound50_avg-roster_change__away_departed_avg_disposals-team_strengths__home_offensive_scoring_shots_avg-player_rating__home_team_rating_sum-advanced_stats__diff_stoppage_clearances_avg5-venue__ground_area-team_form__away_avg_score_3-team_strengths__home_scoring_shot_differential-weather__weather_is_hot-weather_impact__away_weather_windy_win_rate_diff-advanced_stats__away_def_half_pressure_acts_avg5-player_rating__diff_team_rating_sum-roster_change__away_departed_avg_goals-player_impact__diff_team_quality_avg_disposals-scheduling__away_timezone_shift-cohesion__home_inside_mid_shared_games-advanced_stats__away_marks_on_lead_avg5-team_form__diff_win_streak-advanced_stats__home_f50_ground_ball_gets_avg5-coaching__home_coach_win_rate-squad_composition__away_outside_mid_count |
| lightgbm_sub1 | 70% | 70% | 16.7 | |||
| xgboost | 69% | 67% | 19.8 | |||
| stacking | 69% | 69% | 27.1 | |||
| lightgbm | 69% | 71% | 16.7 | |||
| random_forest | 69% | 72% | 16.6 | |||
| elasticnet | 69% | 70% | 17.5 | |||
| xgboost_cls | 69% | 71% | 19.9 | |||
| xgboost_sub2 | 69% | 66% | 16.2 | |||
| ridge | 68% | 68% | 16.7 | |||
v20261103-0402 11/3/2026 | lightgbmActive | 71% | 70% | 26.8 | 100 | +adjusted_form__diff_def_score_rating+adjusted_form__diff_off_score_rating+team_form__diff_wavg_score_8+adjusted_form__away_off_score_rating+adjusted_form__diff_overall_defensive+player_impact__diff_team_avg_career_games+adjusted_form__home_off_score_rating+adjusted_form__diff_off_inside_50s_rating+adjusted_form__away_def_score_rating+advanced_stats__diff_shot_conversion_avg5+roster_change__away_departed_avg_disposals+team_strengths__home_offensive_scoring_shots_avg+player_rating__home_team_rating_sum+advanced_stats__diff_stoppage_clearances_avg5+adjusted_form__diff_def_disposals_rating+team_form__away_avg_score_3+team_strengths__home_scoring_shot_differential+adjusted_form__away_overall_defensive+weather__weather_is_hot+adjusted_form__diff_def_marks_inside_50_rating+player_rating__diff_team_rating_sum+roster_change__away_departed_avg_goals+scheduling__away_timezone_shift+advanced_stats__away_marks_on_lead_avg5+weather_impact__home_kick_wind_penalty+advanced_stats__home_f50_ground_ball_gets_avg5+coaching__home_coach_win_rate+squad_composition__away_outside_mid_count-team_form__diff_avg_score_5-adjusted_form__home_off_marks_inside_50_rating-adjusted_form__away_def_disposals_rating-coaching__home_coach_win_rate_recent-player_impact__home_team_quality_avg_disposals-adjusted_form__diff_off_contested_possessions_rating-adjusted_form__home_off_rebound_50s_rating-adjusted_form__away_def_rebound_50s_rating-adjusted_form__home_def_clearances_rating-matchup__style_diff_contested_strength-coaching__away_coach_win_rate_recent-advanced_stats__diff_effective_disposals_avg5-adjusted_form__home_off_tackles_rating-adjusted_form__away_off_tackles_rating-adjusted_form__away_off_hitouts_rating-advanced_stats__away_tackles_inside_fifty_avg5-team_form__away_win_streak-adjusted_form__diff_def_tackles_rating-venue__away_venue_familiarity_score-venue__home_venue_games_recent-player_impact__home_def_replacement_gap-adjusted_form__away_off_disposals_rating-adjusted_form__home_def_hitouts_rating-team_form__home_win_streak-weather_impact__diff_contested_in_rain-roster_change__diff_departed_avg_goals-weather__weather_headwind_component-adjusted_form__home_off_contested_possessions_rating |
| xgboost_sub1 | 70% | 67% | 16.6 | |||
| xgboost | 70% | 71% | 16.8 | |||
| xgboost_sub2 | 70% | 69% | 16.9 | |||
| elasticnet | 70% | 69% | 17.6 | |||
| stacking | 70% | 69% | 27.5 | |||
| random_forest | 69% | 72% | 16.5 | |||
| xgboost_cls | 69% | 73% | 29.4 | |||
| lightgbm_sub1 | 68% | 71% | 17.2 | |||
| ridge | 68% | 68% | 16.4 | |||
v20261021-0554 10/21/2026 | lightgbmActive | 70% | 70% | 17.0 | 100 | +team_form__diff_wavg_margin_5+weather_impact__home_weather_windy_margin_diff+team_strengths__away_defensive_points_conceded_avg+team_strengths__diff_transition_rebound50_avg+transform__log_abs_diff_scoring_shot_differential+adjusted_form__diff_overall_offensive+coaching__home_coach_win_rate_recent+player_impact__home_team_quality_avg_disposals+roster_change__home_departed_avg_disposals+player_impact__diff_missing_total_win_impact+adjusted_form__diff_off_contested_possessions_rating+advanced_stats__diff_intercept_mark_rate_avg5+team_form__home_avg_score_8+player_impact__diff_missing_clearance_share+matchup__style_diff_contested_strength+cohesion__home_inside_mid_shared_games+advanced_stats__diff_effective_disposals_avg5+venue__diff_venue_familiarity_score+player_form__diff_avg_player_disposals_3+adjusted_form__diff_def_inside_50s_rating+advanced_stats__away_def_half_pressure_acts_avg5+team_form__away_win_streak+venue__ground_area+adjusted_form__home_off_disposals_rating+venue__away_venue_familiarity_score+player_impact__diff_team_quality_avg_disposals+team_form__home_wavg_margin_5+cohesion__away_team_avg_shared_wins+venue__home_venue_games_recent+player_impact__home_def_replacement_gap+player_form__diff_avg_player_clearances_3+adjusted_form__away_off_disposals_rating+advanced_stats__home_metres_gained_avg5+weather_impact__diff_contested_in_rain+roster_change__diff_departed_avg_goals+weather__weather_headwind_component+adjusted_form__home_off_contested_possessions_rating-adjusted_form__home_def_tackles_rating-team_form__diff_avg_score_8-adjusted_form__home_off_score_rating-team_form__diff_rolling_pct_5-adjusted_form__home_def_disposals_rating-adjusted_form__home_def_contested_possessions_rating-adjusted_form__away_def_hitouts_rating-adjusted_form__away_def_marks_inside_50_rating-adjusted_form__home_def_rebound_50s_rating-adjusted_form__home_off_inside_50s_rating-adjusted_form__away_net_rating-adjusted_form__away_off_marks_inside_50_rating-adjusted_form__home_def_inside_50s_rating-adjusted_form__home_off_hitouts_rating-adjusted_form__away_off_rebound_50s_rating-adjusted_form__home_def_marks_inside_50_rating-adjusted_form__home_off_clearances_rating-team_strengths__diff_territory_rebound50_avg-adjusted_form__away_def_score_rating-adjusted_form__away_def_contested_possessions_rating-weather_impact__home_weather_windy_win_rate_diff-adjusted_form__away_off_inside_50s_rating-adjusted_form__diff_off_tackles_rating-adjusted_form__away_off_clearances_rating-team_strengths__diff_offensive_scoring_efficiency-advanced_stats__home_f50_ground_ball_gets_avg5-adjusted_form__diff_off_clearances_rating-adjusted_form__away_def_clearances_rating-coaching__home_coach_win_rate-adjusted_form__away_def_tackles_rating-weather_impact__diff_tackle_wet_advantage-adjusted_form__away_off_score_rating-adjusted_form__diff_def_contested_possessions_rating-player_impact__away_team_quality_avg_disposals-adjusted_form__diff_net_rating-roster_change__away_departed_avg_disposals-advanced_stats__home_contest_off_wins_avg5 |
| xgboost_cls | 70% | 70% | 26.3 | |||
| xgboost | 69% | 71% | 16.8 | |||
| random_forest | 69% | 72% | 16.9 | |||
| xgboost_sub1 | 69% | 71% | 16.8 | |||
| ridge | 68% | 71% | 22.7 | |||
| stacking | 68% | 73% | 27.6 | |||
| xgboost_sub2 | 68% | 72% | 26.6 | |||
| elasticnet | 67% | 70% | 18.0 | |||
| lightgbm_sub1 | 67% | 69% | 17.8 | |||
v20261020-2352 10/21/2026 | xgboostActive | 71% | 69% | 16.9 | 100 | +team_form__diff_avg_score_5+team_form__diff_rolling_pct_5+adjusted_form__home_def_contested_possessions_rating+adjusted_form__away_net_rating+adjusted_form__home_off_marks_inside_50_rating+coaching__away_coach_win_rate+player_impact__diff_missing_count+adjusted_form__away_def_contested_possessions_rating+team_strengths__diff_offensive_scoring_efficiency+advanced_stats__home_f50_ground_ball_gets_avg5+coaching__home_coach_win_rate+player_form__away_avg_player_clearances_3+weather_impact__diff_tackle_wet_advantage+advanced_stats__diff_rating_points_avg5+adjusted_form__diff_def_contested_possessions_rating+player_impact__away_team_quality_avg_disposals+roster_change__home_departed_avg_goals+adjusted_form__diff_net_rating+roster_change__away_departed_avg_disposals-team_form__diff_wavg_margin_5-team_form__diff_wavg_score_5-adjusted_form__away_off_disposals_rating-adjusted_form__home_overall_offensive-adjusted_form__home_off_disposals_rating-adjusted_form__away_overall_offensive-adjusted_form__home_off_contested_possessions_rating-adjusted_form__away_off_contested_possessions_rating-advanced_stats__diff_tackles_inside_fifty_avg5-team_form__away_form_vs_expected-team_form__home_avg_score_8-player_impact__diff_missing_disposal_share-team_form__home_upset_index-venue__ground_width-transform__log_abs_diff_scoring_shot_differential-adjusted_form__matchup_advantage-advanced_stats__home_metres_gained_avg5-matchup__h2h_home_avg_margin-player_impact__home_team_quality_avg_disposals |
| random_forest | 70% | 72% | 16.8 | |||
| xgboost_sub1 | 70% | 71% | 17.4 | |||
| stacking | 70% | 69% | 28.2 | |||
| lightgbm_sub1 | 69% | 70% | 26.5 | |||
| xgboost_sub2 | 69% | 66% | 17.1 | |||
| elasticnet | 69% | 71% | 17.3 | |||
| lightgbm | 68% | 73% | 17.1 | |||
| xgboost_cls | 68% | 66% | 20.0 | |||
| ridge | 68% | 68% | 19.9 | |||
v20261020-0846 10/20/2026 | stackingActive | 71% | 71% | 27.1 | 100 | |
| random_forest | 69% | 74% | 17.2 | |||
| xgboost | 69% | 67% | 26.1 | |||
| xgboost_sub2 | 69% | 71% | 25.4 | |||
| elasticnet | 69% | 70% | 17.0 | |||
| xgboost_cls | 69% | 71% | 20.2 | |||
| lightgbm | 69% | 72% | 25.2 | |||
| lightgbm_sub1 | 68% | 68% | 17.4 | |||
| xgboost_sub1 | 68% | 70% | 25.6 | |||
| ridge | 68% | 70% | 17.2 | |||
v20261020-0432 10/20/2026 | stackingActive | 70% | 69% | 27.3 | 100 | |
| elasticnet | 69% | 71% | 17.0 | |||
| xgboost_cls | 69% | 72% | 20.1 | |||
| xgboost_sub1 | 69% | 63% | 25.9 | |||
| xgboost | 69% | 69% | 24.4 | |||
| xgboost_sub2 | 69% | 68% | 20.5 | |||
| ridge | 69% | 70% | 17.2 | |||
| random_forest | 69% | 71% | 17.3 | |||
| lightgbm_sub1 | 68% | 71% | 25.9 | |||
| lightgbm | 68% | 69% | 17.2 | |||
v20261019-0320 10/19/2026 | stackingActive | 72% | 68% | 27.1 | 100 | |
| elasticnet | 69% | 70% | 17.1 | |||
| xgboost_cls | 69% | 71% | 23.7 | |||
| xgboost_sub1 | 69% | 73% | 17.3 | |||
| random_forest | 69% | 71% | 20.4 | |||
| xgboost | 69% | 72% | 21.3 | |||
| lightgbm_sub1 | 69% | 67% | 17.1 | |||
| xgboost_sub2 | 69% | 69% | 20.5 | |||
| lightgbm | 69% | 74% | 20.3 | |||
| ridge | 68% | 71% | 17.2 | |||
v20260820-0642 8/20/2026 | lightgbm_sub1Active | 69% | 70% | 17.4 | 100 | |
| xgboost_cls | 69% | 71% | 20.1 | |||
| stacking | 69% | 68% | 27.2 | |||
| xgboost | 69% | 74% | 17.9 | |||
| elasticnet | 69% | 72% | 17.0 | |||
| xgboost_sub2 | 69% | 69% | 20.2 | |||
| random_forest | 69% | 70% | 22.6 | |||
| lightgbm | 69% | 69% | 17.0 | |||
| xgboost_sub1 | 69% | 73% | 17.2 | |||
| ridge | 68% | 70% | 17.3 | |||
v20260722-2344 7/23/2026 | stackingActive | 70% | 69% | 27.5 | 100 | |
| xgboost_sub1 | 69% | 69% | 17.4 | |||
| elasticnet | 69% | 71% | 17.1 | |||
| xgboost_cls | 69% | 66% | 20.1 | |||
| xgboost_sub2 | 69% | 68% | 17.3 | |||
| xgboost | 69% | 72% | 17.0 | |||
| lightgbm | 69% | 71% | 20.4 | |||
| random_forest | 68% | 71% | 17.2 | |||
| ridge | 68% | 70% | 17.2 | |||
| lightgbm_sub1 | 68% | 65% | 24.0 | |||
v20260707-0518 7/7/2026 | stackingActive | 70% | 70% | 27.4 | 100 | |
| xgboost_sub1 | 70% | 72% | 20.4 | |||
| xgboost | 70% | 71% | 23.3 | |||
| lightgbm_sub1 | 69% | 69% | 17.9 | |||
| elasticnet | 69% | 71% | 17.1 | |||
| xgboost_cls | 69% | 70% | 20.1 | |||
| xgboost_sub2 | 69% | 70% | 20.5 | |||
| lightgbm | 69% | 71% | 17.3 | |||
| random_forest | 69% | 71% | 17.2 | |||
| ridge | 68% | 69% | 17.3 | |||
v20260701-0229 7/1/2026 | stackingActive | 70% | 71% | 27.1 | 100 | |
| xgboost_cls | 70% | 71% | 23.9 | |||
| elasticnet | 69% | 71% | 17.0 | |||
| xgboost | 69% | 71% | 25.4 | |||
| xgboost_sub2 | 69% | 70% | 20.4 | |||
| lightgbm_sub1 | 69% | 74% | 26.0 | |||
| xgboost_sub1 | 69% | 70% | 17.0 | |||
| lightgbm | 69% | 71% | 25.2 | |||
| random_forest | 68% | 71% | 17.2 | |||
| ridge | 68% | 69% | 17.2 | |||
v20260630-1143 6/30/2026 | stackingActive | 70% | 71% | 27.2 | 100 | +adjusted_form__away_off_disposals_rating+roster_change__away_roster_retention+adjusted_form__away_def_tackles_rating+team_form__home_avg_score_8+adjusted_form__away_off_clearances_rating+advanced_stats__away_tackles_inside_fifty_avg5+player_impact__diff_missing_disposal_share+team_form__home_upset_index+roster_change__away_arrived_avg_goals+advanced_stats__home_metres_gained_avg5+venue__diff_venue_win_pct_recent+matchup__h2h_home_avg_margin-elo__elo_diff-interaction__ratio_elo_per_volatility-venue__ground_area-adjusted_form__home_off_marks_inside_50_rating-player_impact__diff_missing_count-contextual__home_ladder_wins-roster_change__home_departed_avg_goals-roster_change__away_departed_avg_disposals-coaching__away_coach_win_rate-squad_composition__home_inside_mid_avg_clearances-adjusted_form__diff_off_contested_possessions_rating-roster_change__away_departed_avg_goals |
| xgboost_sub2 | 69% | 72% | 17.9 | |||
| lightgbm | 69% | 70% | 20.5 | |||
| elasticnet | 69% | 71% | 17.0 | |||
| xgboost | 69% | 70% | 17.2 | |||
| xgboost_sub1 | 69% | 71% | 17.2 | |||
| lightgbm_sub1 | 69% | 71% | 19.9 | |||
| xgboost_cls | 69% | 71% | 20.1 | |||
| random_forest | 69% | 69% | 20.3 | |||
| ridge | 68% | 69% | 17.2 | |||
v20260630-0516 6/30/2026 | stackingActive | 70% | 70% | 27.0 | 100 | +elo__elo_diff+interaction__ratio_elo_per_volatility+team_form__diff_wavg_margin_5+team_form__diff_wavg_score_5+venue__ground_area+adjusted_form__away_off_rebound_50s_rating+adjusted_form__home_off_marks_inside_50_rating+advanced_stats__diff_tackles_inside_fifty_avg5+player_impact__diff_missing_count+contextual__home_ladder_wins+roster_change__home_departed_avg_goals+roster_change__away_departed_avg_disposals+coaching__away_coach_win_rate+squad_composition__home_inside_mid_avg_clearances+roster_change__away_departed_avg_goals-team_form__diff_avg_score_5-team_form__diff_rolling_pct_5-adjusted_form__away_off_disposals_rating-roster_change__away_roster_retention-adjusted_form__away_def_tackles_rating-advanced_stats__away_tackles_inside_fifty_avg5-team_form__home_avg_score_8-team_form__home_upset_index-adjusted_form__away_off_clearances_rating-player_impact__diff_fwd_replacement_gap-roster_change__away_arrived_avg_goals-advanced_stats__home_metres_gained_avg5-venue__diff_venue_win_pct_recent-venue__diff_venue_win_pct-matchup__h2h_home_avg_margin |
| random_forest | 70% | 73% | 17.1 | |||
| elasticnet | 69% | 73% | 21.3 | |||
| xgboost | 69% | 71% | 20.0 | |||
| lightgbm | 69% | 72% | 17.1 | |||
| lightgbm_sub1 | 69% | 71% | 17.2 | |||
| xgboost_sub2 | 69% | 68% | 17.3 | |||
| xgboost_sub1 | 69% | 69% | 17.3 | |||
| ridge | 68% | 70% | 20.1 | |||
| xgboost_cls | 68% | 73% | 20.1 | |||
v20260630-0159 6/30/2026 | stackingActive | 70% | 71% | 26.8 | 100 | +team_form__diff_avg_score_5+team_form__diff_rolling_pct_5+team_form__diff_avg_score_8+team_strengths__diff_territory_rebound50_avg+adjusted_form__away_off_inside_50s_rating+adjusted_form__away_def_score_rating+matchup__h2h_home_win_pct+adjusted_form__diff_off_contested_possessions_rating+team_form__home_avg_score_8+player_impact__diff_fwd_replacement_gap+advanced_stats__home_metres_gained_avg5+venue__diff_venue_win_pct+matchup__h2h_home_avg_margin-elo__elo_diff-interaction__ratio_elo_per_volatility-team_form__diff_wavg_margin_5-team_form__diff_wavg_score_8-team_strengths__diff_transition_rebound50_avg-player_impact__diff_missing_count-adjusted_form__home_off_marks_inside_50_rating-roster_change__away_departed_avg_disposals-coaching__away_coach_win_rate-venue__ground_area-roster_change__away_departed_avg_goals-interaction__elo_x_form-adjusted_form__diff_def_contested_possessions_rating |
| xgboost_sub2 | 70% | 71% | 20.5 | |||
| elasticnet | 69% | 71% | 17.1 | |||
| xgboost | 69% | 74% | 17.2 | |||
| xgboost_cls | 69% | 71% | 20.1 | |||
| xgboost_sub1 | 69% | 71% | 25.7 | |||
| random_forest | 69% | 72% | 17.2 | |||
| lightgbm | 69% | 72% | 17.5 | |||
| lightgbm_sub1 | 69% | 71% | 22.9 | |||
| ridge | 68% | 68% | 17.2 | |||
v20260629-2331 6/30/2026 | stackingActive | 70% | 73% | 27.2 | 100 | |
| lightgbm_sub1 | 70% | 72% | 17.2 | |||
| lightgbm | 70% | 75% | 25.0 | |||
| xgboost | 70% | 73% | 22.3 | |||
| random_forest | 70% | 75% | 20.1 | |||
| xgboost_sub2 | 69% | 72% | 17.3 | |||
| elasticnet | 69% | 72% | 18.3 | |||
| xgboost_cls | 69% | 68% | 20.1 | |||
| ridge | 68% | 71% | 17.1 | |||
| xgboost_sub1 | 68% | 68% | 17.5 | |||
v20260629-0433 6/29/2026 | lightgbmActive | 70% | 74% | 24.9 | 100 | +roster_change__away_roster_retention+team_form__diff_wavg_score_8+team_strengths__diff_transition_rebound50_avg+adjusted_form__away_off_disposals_rating+advanced_stats__away_tackles_inside_fifty_avg5+team_form__home_upset_index+adjusted_form__away_off_clearances_rating+roster_change__away_arrived_avg_goals+adjusted_form__away_def_tackles_rating+advanced_stats__home_contest_off_wins_avg5+roster_change__away_departed_avg_goals+interaction__elo_x_form+adjusted_form__diff_def_contested_possessions_rating-team_form__diff_avg_score_5-team_form__diff_avg_score_8-team_strengths__diff_territory_rebound50_avg-adjusted_form__away_off_rebound_50s_rating-weather_impact__diff_contested_in_rain-adjusted_form__away_def_score_rating-contextual__home_ladder_wins-roster_change__home_departed_avg_goals-weather_impact__diff_contested_wet_advantage-venue__diff_venue_win_pct-matchup__h2h_home_win_pct-adjusted_form__away_off_inside_50s_rating-adjusted_form__diff_off_score_rating |
| xgboost | 70% | 72% | 17.3 | |||
| random_forest | 70% | 74% | 20.1 | |||
| elasticnet | 70% | 71% | 23.7 | |||
| stacking | 69% | 72% | 26.6 | |||
| xgboost_sub1 | 69% | 71% | 16.8 | |||
| xgboost_sub2 | 69% | 71% | 24.5 | |||
| lightgbm_sub1 | 69% | 73% | 20.3 | |||
| ridge | 69% | 72% | 17.1 | |||
| xgboost_cls | 69% | 71% | 20.2 | |||
v20260629-0101 6/29/2026 | lightgbm_sub1Active | 70% | 71% | 25.2 | 100 | +team_form__diff_wavg_margin_5+team_strengths__diff_territory_rebound50_avg+weather_impact__diff_contested_in_rain+venue__ground_width+adjusted_form__away_off_hitouts_rating+player_impact__diff_missing_count+contextual__home_ladder_wins+roster_change__home_departed_avg_goals+weather_impact__diff_contested_wet_advantage+coaching__away_coach_win_rate_recent+coaching__away_coach_win_rate+venue__diff_venue_win_pct+transform__log_abs_diff_scoring_shot_differential+adjusted_form__away_off_score_rating+adjusted_form__away_off_inside_50s_rating+adjusted_form__diff_off_score_rating-team_form__diff_rolling_pct_5-team_strengths__diff_transition_rebound50_avg-adjusted_form__away_off_clearances_rating-adjusted_form__away_def_tackles_rating-advanced_stats__home_contest_off_wins_avg5-roster_change__away_roster_retention-player_impact__diff_missing_disposal_share-roster_change__home_departed_avg_disposals-player_impact__diff_max_missing_win_impact-roster_change__away_arrived_avg_goals-team_form__away_avg_score_3-adjusted_form__away_off_disposals_rating-interaction__elo_x_form-team_form__home_upset_index-scheduling__away_short_turnaround_count_4-advanced_stats__diff_tackles_inside_fifty_avg5 |
| stacking | 70% | 62% | 27.8 | |||
| xgboost | 70% | 75% | 23.9 | |||
| random_forest | 69% | 75% | 17.2 | |||
| elasticnet | 69% | 74% | 21.6 | |||
| lightgbm | 69% | 74% | 17.2 | |||
| xgboost_cls | 69% | 69% | 20.2 | |||
| xgboost_sub2 | 69% | 74% | 17.1 | |||
| xgboost_sub1 | 69% | 74% | 20.5 | |||
| ridge | 68% | 72% | 17.2 | |||
v20260626-0617 6/26/2026 | random_forestActive | 69% | 74% | 17.1 | 100 | +team_form__diff_avg_score_8+player_impact__diff_max_missing_win_impact-team_form__diff_wavg_score_8-matchup__h2h_home_avg_margin |
| xgboost_sub2 | 69% | 71% | 22.5 | |||
| stacking | 69% | 72% | 27.3 | |||
| xgboost | 69% | 69% | 22.5 | |||
| elasticnet | 69% | 72% | 17.0 | |||
| xgboost_sub1 | 69% | 73% | 17.2 | |||
| lightgbm_sub1 | 69% | 73% | 17.5 | |||
| xgboost_cls | 69% | 72% | 20.2 | |||
| lightgbm | 69% | 74% | 20.6 | |||
| ridge | 68% | 71% | 25.5 | |||
v20260626-0245 6/26/2026 | random_forestActive | 70% | 73% | 17.2 | 100 | +team_form__away_sos_weighted_margin_3+team_strengths__diff_transition_rebound50_avg+adjusted_form__diff_off_tackles_rating+team_form__home_sos_weighted_margin_3+venue__ground_area+cohesion__away_team_avg_shared_games+roster_change__away_departed_avg_disposals+adjusted_form__away_off_rebound_50s_rating+advanced_stats__home_contest_off_wins_avg5+adjusted_form__diff_off_clearances_rating+team_form__away_form_vs_expected+adjusted_form__matchup_advantage+team_form__diff_avg_inside_50s_8+roster_change__away_arrived_avg_goals+team_form__away_avg_score_3+player_form__diff_avg_player_goals_3+adjusted_form__away_off_disposals_rating+team_strengths__diff_scoring_shot_differential+advanced_stats__diff_tackles_inside_fifty_avg5+player_impact__home_team_quality_avg_disposals+team_form__home_upset_index+venue__home_venue_win_pct+scheduling__away_short_turnaround_count_4+player_impact__diff_missing_disposal_share+matchup__h2h_home_avg_margin-adjusted_form__home_overall_defensive-venue__ground_width-adjusted_form__away_off_hitouts_rating-adjusted_form__away_overall_defensive-cohesion__diff_team_avg_shared_games-team_form__home_avg_score_8-player_form__away_avg_player_clearances_3-venue__diff_venue_win_pct-advanced_stats__diff_rating_points_avg5-cohesion__away_team_avg_shared_wins-adjusted_form__away_off_inside_50s_rating-team_form__home_wavg_margin_5-adjusted_form__away_off_score_rating-coaching__away_coach_win_rate-team_form__away_avg_score_5-advanced_stats__home_f50_ground_ball_gets_avg5-adjusted_form__diff_off_rebound_50s_rating-team_form__home_avg_score_3-player_impact__diff_missing_clearance_share-advanced_stats__home_metres_gained_avg5-coaching__home_coach_win_rate_recent-transform__log_abs_diff_scoring_shot_differential-team_form__away_avg_score_8-player_impact__diff_missing_total_role_criticality-adjusted_form__diff_off_marks_inside_50_rating |
| lightgbm | 70% | 73% | 25.4 | |||
| lightgbm_sub1 | 70% | 73% | 25.7 | |||
| stacking | 70% | 75% | 26.5 | |||
| xgboost_sub1 | 70% | 71% | 22.4 | |||
| xgboost_sub2 | 70% | 74% | 23.4 | |||
| xgboost | 69% | 73% | 17.0 | |||
| xgboost_cls | 69% | 71% | 20.1 | |||
| ridge | 69% | 71% | 17.1 | |||
| elasticnet | 68% | 75% | 16.9 | |||
v20260625-0409 6/25/2026 | xgboost_sub1Active | 71% | — | 16.7 | 100 | +cohesion__diff_team_shared_win_pct+team_form__diff_rolling_pct_5+team_form__diff_wavg_score_8+cohesion__diff_team_avg_shared_wins+cohesion__away_team_shared_win_pct+cohesion__home_team_shared_win_pct+adjusted_form__home_off_contested_possessions_rating+venue__ground_width+adjusted_form__away_def_clearances_rating+cohesion__away_team_avg_shared_wins+contextual__away_ladder_pct+adjusted_form__away_def_disposals_rating+coaching__away_coach_win_rate+cohesion__home_team_avg_shared_wins+team_form__away_avg_score_8+adjusted_form__diff_off_marks_inside_50_rating+matchup__h2h_home_win_pct-team_form__diff_wavg_margin_5-team_form__diff_avg_score_8-adjusted_form__away_off_rebound_50s_rating-team_form__away_win_streak-player_impact__diff_missing_count-roster_change__away_departed_avg_goals-team_strengths__away_defensive_points_conceded_avg-cohesion__diff_mid_group_shared_games-player_impact__home_def_replacement_gap-roster_change__home_departed_avg_goals-venue__home_venue_win_pct-team_strengths__diff_scoring_shot_differential-cohesion__home_coach_squad_avg_tenure-adjusted_form__diff_off_score_rating-matchup__h2h_home_avg_margin-roster_change__home_arrived_avg_disposals-team_form__home_sos_weighted_margin_3 |
| stacking | 70% | — | 27.4 | |||
| xgboost | 70% | — | 16.2 | |||
| elasticnet | 70% | — | 23.7 | |||
| lightgbm_sub1 | 70% | — | 19.6 | |||
| xgboost_sub2 | 70% | — | 16.3 | |||
| lightgbm | 70% | — | 15.9 | |||
| ridge | 70% | — | 16.0 | |||
| xgboost_cls | 70% | — | 19.8 | |||
| random_forest | 69% | — | 16.5 | |||
v20260625-0114 6/25/2026 | lightgbmActive | 71% | — | 16.5 | 100 | |
| stacking | 71% | — | 27.5 | |||
| elasticnet | 70% | — | 17.2 | |||
| xgboost_cls | 70% | — | 19.7 | |||
| xgboost_sub1 | 70% | — | 16.1 | |||
| xgboost | 70% | — | 16.2 | |||
| random_forest | 70% | — | 16.3 | |||
| lightgbm_sub1 | 70% | — | 16.1 | |||
| xgboost_sub2 | 70% | — | 16.4 | |||
| ridge | 69% | — | 16.1 |
Error Analysis — v20261106-0745
Matches Analysed
3075
Overall Tip Rate
67%
Overall MAE
29.5
By Round Phase
| Category | N | Tip Rate | MAE |
|---|---|---|---|
| early | 799 | 66% | 30.2 |
| mid | 1347 | 69% | 28.6 |
| late | 843 | 68% | 30.1 |
| finals | 86 | 57% | 32.0 |
By Margin Bucket
| Category | N | Tip Rate | MAE |
|---|---|---|---|
| close | 922 | 55% | 18.2 |
| medium | 948 | 64% | 23.9 |
| blowout | 1205 | 80% | 42.6 |
By Confidence
| Category | N | Tip Rate | MAE |
|---|---|---|---|
| low | 953 | 57% | 27.1 |
| medium | 1080 | 64% | 29.4 |
| high | 1042 | 81% | 31.9 |
By Team (worst tip rate)
| Team | N | Tip Rate | MAE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Collingwood | 351 | 61% | 29.0 |
| Western Bulldogs | 341 | 64% | 29.9 |
| Sydney | 356 | 64% | 27.6 |
| Fremantle | 340 | 64% | 28.8 |
| Port Adelaide | 343 | 64% | 30.9 |
| Hawthorn | 353 | 65% | 30.5 |
| Adelaide | 339 | 66% | 29.7 |
| Richmond | 344 | 67% | 29.1 |
| Carlton | 336 | 67% | 27.4 |
| Team | N | Tip Rate | MAE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gold Coast | 330 | 74% | 31.8 |
| West Coast | 345 | 72% | 29.9 |
| North Melbourne | 336 | 71% | 29.0 |
| Brisbane Lions | 348 | 70% | 28.2 |
| Greater Western Sydney | 325 | 70% | 30.5 |
| St Kilda | 332 | 69% | 28.4 |
| Geelong | 360 | 69% | 30.6 |
| Essendon | 333 | 69% | 29.8 |
| Melbourne | 338 | 68% | 30.4 |
Total upsets (wrong direction): 979