Training History
Track how model performance changes across training runs.
Training Runs
13
CV Tip Rate
70%
Test Tip Rate
69%
Latest MAE
27.5
Features
100
Tip Rate Across Training Runs
Model Comparison by Run
| Run | Model | CV Tip Rate | Test Tip Rate | MAE | Features | Changes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
v20260722-2344 7/23/2026 | stackingActive | 70% | 69% | 27.5 | 100 | |
| xgboost_sub1 | 69% | 69% | 17.4 | |||
| elasticnet | 69% | 71% | 17.1 | |||
| xgboost_cls | 69% | 66% | 20.1 | |||
| xgboost_sub2 | 69% | 68% | 17.3 | |||
| xgboost | 69% | 72% | 17.0 | |||
| lightgbm | 69% | 71% | 20.4 | |||
| random_forest | 68% | 71% | 17.2 | |||
| ridge | 68% | 70% | 17.2 | |||
| lightgbm_sub1 | 68% | 65% | 24.0 | |||
v20260707-0518 7/7/2026 | stackingActive | 70% | 70% | 27.4 | 100 | |
| xgboost_sub1 | 70% | 72% | 20.4 | |||
| xgboost | 70% | 71% | 23.3 | |||
| lightgbm_sub1 | 69% | 69% | 17.9 | |||
| elasticnet | 69% | 71% | 17.1 | |||
| xgboost_cls | 69% | 70% | 20.1 | |||
| xgboost_sub2 | 69% | 70% | 20.5 | |||
| lightgbm | 69% | 71% | 17.3 | |||
| random_forest | 69% | 71% | 17.2 | |||
| ridge | 68% | 69% | 17.3 | |||
v20260701-0229 7/1/2026 | stackingActive | 70% | 71% | 27.1 | 100 | |
| xgboost_cls | 70% | 71% | 23.9 | |||
| elasticnet | 69% | 71% | 17.0 | |||
| xgboost | 69% | 71% | 25.4 | |||
| xgboost_sub2 | 69% | 70% | 20.4 | |||
| lightgbm_sub1 | 69% | 74% | 26.0 | |||
| xgboost_sub1 | 69% | 70% | 17.0 | |||
| lightgbm | 69% | 71% | 25.2 | |||
| random_forest | 68% | 71% | 17.2 | |||
| ridge | 68% | 69% | 17.2 | |||
v20260630-1143 6/30/2026 | stackingActive | 70% | 71% | 27.2 | 100 | +adjusted_form__away_off_disposals_rating+roster_change__away_roster_retention+adjusted_form__away_def_tackles_rating+team_form__home_avg_score_8+adjusted_form__away_off_clearances_rating+advanced_stats__away_tackles_inside_fifty_avg5+player_impact__diff_missing_disposal_share+team_form__home_upset_index+roster_change__away_arrived_avg_goals+advanced_stats__home_metres_gained_avg5+venue__diff_venue_win_pct_recent+matchup__h2h_home_avg_margin-elo__elo_diff-interaction__ratio_elo_per_volatility-venue__ground_area-adjusted_form__home_off_marks_inside_50_rating-player_impact__diff_missing_count-contextual__home_ladder_wins-roster_change__home_departed_avg_goals-roster_change__away_departed_avg_disposals-coaching__away_coach_win_rate-squad_composition__home_inside_mid_avg_clearances-adjusted_form__diff_off_contested_possessions_rating-roster_change__away_departed_avg_goals |
| xgboost_sub2 | 69% | 72% | 17.9 | |||
| lightgbm | 69% | 70% | 20.5 | |||
| elasticnet | 69% | 71% | 17.0 | |||
| xgboost | 69% | 70% | 17.2 | |||
| xgboost_sub1 | 69% | 71% | 17.2 | |||
| lightgbm_sub1 | 69% | 71% | 19.9 | |||
| xgboost_cls | 69% | 71% | 20.1 | |||
| random_forest | 69% | 69% | 20.3 | |||
| ridge | 68% | 69% | 17.2 | |||
v20260630-0516 6/30/2026 | stackingActive | 70% | 70% | 27.0 | 100 | +elo__elo_diff+interaction__ratio_elo_per_volatility+team_form__diff_wavg_margin_5+team_form__diff_wavg_score_5+venue__ground_area+adjusted_form__away_off_rebound_50s_rating+adjusted_form__home_off_marks_inside_50_rating+advanced_stats__diff_tackles_inside_fifty_avg5+player_impact__diff_missing_count+contextual__home_ladder_wins+roster_change__home_departed_avg_goals+roster_change__away_departed_avg_disposals+coaching__away_coach_win_rate+squad_composition__home_inside_mid_avg_clearances+roster_change__away_departed_avg_goals-team_form__diff_avg_score_5-team_form__diff_rolling_pct_5-adjusted_form__away_off_disposals_rating-roster_change__away_roster_retention-adjusted_form__away_def_tackles_rating-advanced_stats__away_tackles_inside_fifty_avg5-team_form__home_avg_score_8-team_form__home_upset_index-adjusted_form__away_off_clearances_rating-player_impact__diff_fwd_replacement_gap-roster_change__away_arrived_avg_goals-advanced_stats__home_metres_gained_avg5-venue__diff_venue_win_pct_recent-venue__diff_venue_win_pct-matchup__h2h_home_avg_margin |
| random_forest | 70% | 73% | 17.1 | |||
| elasticnet | 69% | 73% | 21.3 | |||
| xgboost | 69% | 71% | 20.0 | |||
| lightgbm | 69% | 72% | 17.1 | |||
| lightgbm_sub1 | 69% | 71% | 17.2 | |||
| xgboost_sub2 | 69% | 68% | 17.3 | |||
| xgboost_sub1 | 69% | 69% | 17.3 | |||
| ridge | 68% | 70% | 20.1 | |||
| xgboost_cls | 68% | 73% | 20.1 | |||
v20260630-0159 6/30/2026 | stackingActive | 70% | 71% | 26.8 | 100 | +team_form__diff_avg_score_5+team_form__diff_rolling_pct_5+team_form__diff_avg_score_8+team_strengths__diff_territory_rebound50_avg+adjusted_form__away_off_inside_50s_rating+adjusted_form__away_def_score_rating+matchup__h2h_home_win_pct+adjusted_form__diff_off_contested_possessions_rating+team_form__home_avg_score_8+player_impact__diff_fwd_replacement_gap+advanced_stats__home_metres_gained_avg5+venue__diff_venue_win_pct+matchup__h2h_home_avg_margin-elo__elo_diff-interaction__ratio_elo_per_volatility-team_form__diff_wavg_margin_5-team_form__diff_wavg_score_8-team_strengths__diff_transition_rebound50_avg-player_impact__diff_missing_count-adjusted_form__home_off_marks_inside_50_rating-roster_change__away_departed_avg_disposals-coaching__away_coach_win_rate-venue__ground_area-roster_change__away_departed_avg_goals-interaction__elo_x_form-adjusted_form__diff_def_contested_possessions_rating |
| xgboost_sub2 | 70% | 71% | 20.5 | |||
| elasticnet | 69% | 71% | 17.1 | |||
| xgboost | 69% | 74% | 17.2 | |||
| xgboost_cls | 69% | 71% | 20.1 | |||
| xgboost_sub1 | 69% | 71% | 25.7 | |||
| random_forest | 69% | 72% | 17.2 | |||
| lightgbm | 69% | 72% | 17.5 | |||
| lightgbm_sub1 | 69% | 71% | 22.9 | |||
| ridge | 68% | 68% | 17.2 | |||
v20260629-2331 6/30/2026 | stackingActive | 70% | 73% | 27.2 | 100 | |
| lightgbm_sub1 | 70% | 72% | 17.2 | |||
| lightgbm | 70% | 75% | 25.0 | |||
| xgboost | 70% | 73% | 22.3 | |||
| random_forest | 70% | 75% | 20.1 | |||
| xgboost_sub2 | 69% | 72% | 17.3 | |||
| elasticnet | 69% | 72% | 18.3 | |||
| xgboost_cls | 69% | 68% | 20.1 | |||
| ridge | 68% | 71% | 17.1 | |||
| xgboost_sub1 | 68% | 68% | 17.5 | |||
v20260629-0433 6/29/2026 | lightgbmActive | 70% | 74% | 24.9 | 100 | +roster_change__away_roster_retention+team_form__diff_wavg_score_8+team_strengths__diff_transition_rebound50_avg+adjusted_form__away_off_disposals_rating+advanced_stats__away_tackles_inside_fifty_avg5+team_form__home_upset_index+adjusted_form__away_off_clearances_rating+roster_change__away_arrived_avg_goals+adjusted_form__away_def_tackles_rating+advanced_stats__home_contest_off_wins_avg5+roster_change__away_departed_avg_goals+interaction__elo_x_form+adjusted_form__diff_def_contested_possessions_rating-team_form__diff_avg_score_5-team_form__diff_avg_score_8-team_strengths__diff_territory_rebound50_avg-adjusted_form__away_off_rebound_50s_rating-weather_impact__diff_contested_in_rain-adjusted_form__away_def_score_rating-contextual__home_ladder_wins-roster_change__home_departed_avg_goals-weather_impact__diff_contested_wet_advantage-venue__diff_venue_win_pct-matchup__h2h_home_win_pct-adjusted_form__away_off_inside_50s_rating-adjusted_form__diff_off_score_rating |
| xgboost | 70% | 72% | 17.3 | |||
| random_forest | 70% | 74% | 20.1 | |||
| elasticnet | 70% | 71% | 23.7 | |||
| stacking | 69% | 72% | 26.6 | |||
| xgboost_sub1 | 69% | 71% | 16.8 | |||
| xgboost_sub2 | 69% | 71% | 24.5 | |||
| lightgbm_sub1 | 69% | 73% | 20.3 | |||
| ridge | 69% | 72% | 17.1 | |||
| xgboost_cls | 69% | 71% | 20.2 | |||
v20260629-0101 6/29/2026 | lightgbm_sub1Active | 70% | 71% | 25.2 | 100 | +team_form__diff_wavg_margin_5+team_strengths__diff_territory_rebound50_avg+weather_impact__diff_contested_in_rain+venue__ground_width+adjusted_form__away_off_hitouts_rating+player_impact__diff_missing_count+contextual__home_ladder_wins+roster_change__home_departed_avg_goals+weather_impact__diff_contested_wet_advantage+coaching__away_coach_win_rate_recent+coaching__away_coach_win_rate+venue__diff_venue_win_pct+transform__log_abs_diff_scoring_shot_differential+adjusted_form__away_off_score_rating+adjusted_form__away_off_inside_50s_rating+adjusted_form__diff_off_score_rating-team_form__diff_rolling_pct_5-team_strengths__diff_transition_rebound50_avg-adjusted_form__away_off_clearances_rating-adjusted_form__away_def_tackles_rating-advanced_stats__home_contest_off_wins_avg5-roster_change__away_roster_retention-player_impact__diff_missing_disposal_share-roster_change__home_departed_avg_disposals-player_impact__diff_max_missing_win_impact-roster_change__away_arrived_avg_goals-team_form__away_avg_score_3-adjusted_form__away_off_disposals_rating-interaction__elo_x_form-team_form__home_upset_index-scheduling__away_short_turnaround_count_4-advanced_stats__diff_tackles_inside_fifty_avg5 |
| stacking | 70% | 62% | 27.8 | |||
| xgboost | 70% | 75% | 23.9 | |||
| random_forest | 69% | 75% | 17.2 | |||
| elasticnet | 69% | 74% | 21.6 | |||
| lightgbm | 69% | 74% | 17.2 | |||
| xgboost_cls | 69% | 69% | 20.2 | |||
| xgboost_sub2 | 69% | 74% | 17.1 | |||
| xgboost_sub1 | 69% | 74% | 20.5 | |||
| ridge | 68% | 72% | 17.2 | |||
v20260626-0617 6/26/2026 | random_forestActive | 69% | 74% | 17.1 | 100 | +team_form__diff_avg_score_8+player_impact__diff_max_missing_win_impact-team_form__diff_wavg_score_8-matchup__h2h_home_avg_margin |
| xgboost_sub2 | 69% | 71% | 22.5 | |||
| stacking | 69% | 72% | 27.3 | |||
| xgboost | 69% | 69% | 22.5 | |||
| elasticnet | 69% | 72% | 17.0 | |||
| xgboost_sub1 | 69% | 73% | 17.2 | |||
| lightgbm_sub1 | 69% | 73% | 17.5 | |||
| xgboost_cls | 69% | 72% | 20.2 | |||
| lightgbm | 69% | 74% | 20.6 | |||
| ridge | 68% | 71% | 25.5 | |||
v20260626-0245 6/26/2026 | random_forestActive | 70% | 73% | 17.2 | 100 | +team_form__away_sos_weighted_margin_3+team_strengths__diff_transition_rebound50_avg+adjusted_form__diff_off_tackles_rating+team_form__home_sos_weighted_margin_3+venue__ground_area+cohesion__away_team_avg_shared_games+roster_change__away_departed_avg_disposals+adjusted_form__away_off_rebound_50s_rating+advanced_stats__home_contest_off_wins_avg5+adjusted_form__diff_off_clearances_rating+team_form__away_form_vs_expected+adjusted_form__matchup_advantage+team_form__diff_avg_inside_50s_8+roster_change__away_arrived_avg_goals+team_form__away_avg_score_3+player_form__diff_avg_player_goals_3+adjusted_form__away_off_disposals_rating+team_strengths__diff_scoring_shot_differential+advanced_stats__diff_tackles_inside_fifty_avg5+player_impact__home_team_quality_avg_disposals+team_form__home_upset_index+venue__home_venue_win_pct+scheduling__away_short_turnaround_count_4+player_impact__diff_missing_disposal_share+matchup__h2h_home_avg_margin-adjusted_form__home_overall_defensive-venue__ground_width-adjusted_form__away_off_hitouts_rating-adjusted_form__away_overall_defensive-cohesion__diff_team_avg_shared_games-team_form__home_avg_score_8-player_form__away_avg_player_clearances_3-venue__diff_venue_win_pct-advanced_stats__diff_rating_points_avg5-cohesion__away_team_avg_shared_wins-adjusted_form__away_off_inside_50s_rating-team_form__home_wavg_margin_5-adjusted_form__away_off_score_rating-coaching__away_coach_win_rate-team_form__away_avg_score_5-advanced_stats__home_f50_ground_ball_gets_avg5-adjusted_form__diff_off_rebound_50s_rating-team_form__home_avg_score_3-player_impact__diff_missing_clearance_share-advanced_stats__home_metres_gained_avg5-coaching__home_coach_win_rate_recent-transform__log_abs_diff_scoring_shot_differential-team_form__away_avg_score_8-player_impact__diff_missing_total_role_criticality-adjusted_form__diff_off_marks_inside_50_rating |
| lightgbm | 70% | 73% | 25.4 | |||
| lightgbm_sub1 | 70% | 73% | 25.7 | |||
| stacking | 70% | 75% | 26.5 | |||
| xgboost_sub1 | 70% | 71% | 22.4 | |||
| xgboost_sub2 | 70% | 74% | 23.4 | |||
| xgboost | 69% | 73% | 17.0 | |||
| xgboost_cls | 69% | 71% | 20.1 | |||
| ridge | 69% | 71% | 17.1 | |||
| elasticnet | 68% | 75% | 16.9 | |||
v20260625-0409 6/25/2026 | xgboost_sub1Active | 71% | — | 16.7 | 100 | +cohesion__diff_team_shared_win_pct+team_form__diff_rolling_pct_5+team_form__diff_wavg_score_8+cohesion__diff_team_avg_shared_wins+cohesion__away_team_shared_win_pct+cohesion__home_team_shared_win_pct+adjusted_form__home_off_contested_possessions_rating+venue__ground_width+adjusted_form__away_def_clearances_rating+cohesion__away_team_avg_shared_wins+contextual__away_ladder_pct+adjusted_form__away_def_disposals_rating+coaching__away_coach_win_rate+cohesion__home_team_avg_shared_wins+team_form__away_avg_score_8+adjusted_form__diff_off_marks_inside_50_rating+matchup__h2h_home_win_pct-team_form__diff_wavg_margin_5-team_form__diff_avg_score_8-adjusted_form__away_off_rebound_50s_rating-team_form__away_win_streak-player_impact__diff_missing_count-roster_change__away_departed_avg_goals-team_strengths__away_defensive_points_conceded_avg-cohesion__diff_mid_group_shared_games-player_impact__home_def_replacement_gap-roster_change__home_departed_avg_goals-venue__home_venue_win_pct-team_strengths__diff_scoring_shot_differential-cohesion__home_coach_squad_avg_tenure-adjusted_form__diff_off_score_rating-matchup__h2h_home_avg_margin-roster_change__home_arrived_avg_disposals-team_form__home_sos_weighted_margin_3 |
| stacking | 70% | — | 27.4 | |||
| xgboost | 70% | — | 16.2 | |||
| elasticnet | 70% | — | 23.7 | |||
| lightgbm_sub1 | 70% | — | 19.6 | |||
| xgboost_sub2 | 70% | — | 16.3 | |||
| lightgbm | 70% | — | 15.9 | |||
| ridge | 70% | — | 16.0 | |||
| xgboost_cls | 70% | — | 19.8 | |||
| random_forest | 69% | — | 16.5 | |||
v20260625-0114 6/25/2026 | lightgbmActive | 71% | — | 16.5 | 100 | |
| stacking | 71% | — | 27.5 | |||
| elasticnet | 70% | — | 17.2 | |||
| xgboost_cls | 70% | — | 19.7 | |||
| xgboost_sub1 | 70% | — | 16.1 | |||
| xgboost | 70% | — | 16.2 | |||
| random_forest | 70% | — | 16.3 | |||
| lightgbm_sub1 | 70% | — | 16.1 | |||
| xgboost_sub2 | 70% | — | 16.4 | |||
| ridge | 69% | — | 16.1 |
Error Analysis — v20260722-2344
Matches Analysed
2782
Overall Tip Rate
66%
Overall MAE
29.5
By Round Phase
| Category | N | Tip Rate | MAE |
|---|---|---|---|
| early | 746 | 62% | 30.6 |
| mid | 1257 | 67% | 28.2 |
| late | 779 | 68% | 30.4 |
| finals | 0 | 0% | 0.0 |
By Margin Bucket
| Category | N | Tip Rate | MAE |
|---|---|---|---|
| close | 821 | 53% | 17.0 |
| medium | 869 | 64% | 23.2 |
| blowout | 1092 | 78% | 43.8 |
By Confidence
| Category | N | Tip Rate | MAE |
|---|---|---|---|
| low | 943 | 54% | 27.2 |
| medium | 994 | 64% | 30.4 |
| high | 845 | 82% | 30.9 |
By Team (worst tip rate)
| Team | N | Tip Rate | MAE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Collingwood | 312 | 61% | 29.2 |
| Western Bulldogs | 311 | 61% | 29.9 |
| Fremantle | 310 | 63% | 29.6 |
| Sydney | 314 | 63% | 26.3 |
| Adelaide | 308 | 64% | 29.4 |
| Melbourne | 308 | 64% | 30.9 |
| St Kilda | 307 | 64% | 29.7 |
| Carlton | 306 | 65% | 28.0 |
| Richmond | 316 | 65% | 28.3 |
| Team | N | Tip Rate | MAE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brisbane Lions | 310 | 74% | 28.1 |
| Gold Coast | 305 | 73% | 30.6 |
| North Melbourne | 309 | 72% | 29.7 |
| West Coast | 312 | 69% | 30.3 |
| Hawthorn | 311 | 67% | 31.3 |
| Port Adelaide | 311 | 67% | 29.9 |
| Geelong | 317 | 66% | 29.4 |
| Essendon | 309 | 66% | 29.1 |
| Greater Western Sydney | 288 | 65% | 30.6 |
Total upsets (wrong direction): 923