Model Insights

ELO-style offensive and defensive ratings for 10 key stats (scoring, disposals, clearances, contested possessions, etc.), adjusted for opponent quality. A team that scores well against strong defences gets a higher rating than one padding stats against weak opponents.

Recent performance trends — rolling averages of scoring, disposals, clearances, and other stats over the last 3, 5, and 8 games, plus win streaks and consistency measures.

How settled the team is — average shared games between teammates, squad continuity from last week, and how long positional groups (defence, midfield, forward) have played together. More familiarity generally means better team connection.

Situational factors — ladder position, days of rest between matches, whether it's a rivalry derby, and if either team is coming off a bye round.

Underlying team capabilities — offensive efficiency (points per inside 50), defensive solidity (points conceded, intercepts), contested ball, disposal efficiency, and pressure.

Log-scaled versions of skewed stats like form shock and momentum — compresses extreme values so a team on a massive streak doesn't dominate the model disproportionately.

Coach-related factors — tenure at the club, overall and recent win rates, venue-specific record, new coach bounce effect, and head-to-head coaching matchup history.

Ground-specific factors — each team's win rate at the venue, how many games they've played there, and travel distance to the ground.

Individual player rolling stats — recent averages for disposals, goals, clearances, and tackles for each player, plus form trends.

How much the team's selected squad has changed from the previous week — high turnover can disrupt team cohesion.

How each team historically performs in different conditions — win rates in rain, wind, and heat compared to their overall record, and how their playing style adapts.

Historical matchup data between the two teams — overall H2H win record and how each team's playing style interacts with the opponent's.

The effect of player availability — missing players by position (ruck, inside mid, key forward, key defender), star player absences, role criticality scores, and win impact analysis.